As Gartner has been saying for years, enterprises should try to improve desktop management while they do migrations and use the migration as a catalyst to enact political and cultural change when possible. For knowledge workers, the significantly higher cost of replacing a broad array of applications keeps Linux a relatively poor choice for an upgrade from Windows 95 compared to a move to windows. Not including new hardware, linux shows payback of almost 27 years based on direct-cost savings only and.6 years overall. This is compared.4 years based on direct savings only and.2 years overall for a move to windows. When Office migration costs are included, payback increases to almost nine years for Windows 95 users and between.9 and.6 years for xp users, depending on whether new hardware is included. If new hardware must be purchased solely to support the migration to xp and the cost is assigned to the project, roi will be more difficult to achieve, but still reachable if indirect savings are included. Enterprises may also decide william to allocate only a portion of the hardware cost to the xp migration project, and this may improve the documented roi.
An issue to consider both in this case and in the cases above is the issue of hardware replacement. The migration model assumes no hardware will be replaced or upgraded during a move to linux, whereas we assume 20 percent of hardware will be upgraded and another one-third will be replaced during a migration Windows. All the numbers above include the cost of new hardware for Windows as part of the migration costs. Enterprises that are planning to upgrade to windows xp without replacing extra hardware above normal refresh may not want to consider the hardware costs as part of their roi calculation. Table 10 provides a summary of migration costs to move from Windows 95 to windows xp, including application development costs; we included one column for Windows xp with the cost of new hardware and another column without that cost. Table 10 Cost to migrate From Windows 95 to linux and Windows xp, including Application development source: Gartner Research (June 2003) Table 10 shows that migrations from one version of Windows to another are expensive projects during which roi is difficult to find as well. Not including the cost of new hardware, for the structured-task workers described by this model, a move from Windows 95 to xp will take nearly 16 years to pay back the investment based only on direct savings, but when indirect savings are examined, roi can. In the same case, linux actually shows a faster payback period based on direct costs only (8.3 years) but a longer payback overall (2.3 years).
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If Office costs are added, structured-task workers would have to wait.3 years to see roi based on direct costs alone, and.8 years based on direct and indirect costs. When we look at a locked, but unmanaged, linux environment (user does not have root access, but management tools are not used we see that structured-task workers show a good chance of roi (from Windows 95 if Office is not used.8 years based. When the office automation migration costs are added, the knowledge worker payback period increases.4 years for Windows 95 and.8 years for Windows. However, we remind enterprises that if political or cultural problems have been preventing Windows lockdown, they may not be able to lock linux desktops, either. Enterprises with applications to move must read on to include those costs in their migration. Table 9 adds in the costs using our resume estimates to evaluate replacement applications and to redevelop internal applications so they will run under Linux (generic browser, java or native linux). Again, the structured-task workers have a chance at attaining roi in less than a year (if moving from Windows 95 to locked Linux).3 years (if moving from Windows 95 to unlocked Linux).
However, enterprises should make sure they understand the assumptions used in our migration model, because we purposely assumed a narrow range of applications in use that would have to be replaced. Better yet, enterprises should replace our estimates with their own. For knowledge workers, who have many applications that are liable to need to be replaced, we foresee little chance of payback in a reasonable time frame. Knowledge workers who can be locked will see some possibility of payback.9.8 years, but only when indirect savings are counted and if the Office migration is not included. If only direct savings are included and if Office is considered, the payback period is 23.7 years, and enterprises should consider whether they can stay on Windows and lock it down instead, thus reducing the migration costs while still reaping lockdown benefits, which. Certainly, if the enterprise identifies other costs or benefits, these should be included as well. Table 9 payback period in Migrating to a linux Desktop, Including Application development Costs source: Gartner Research (June 2003) The windows xp alternative: When making a decision whether to move to linux, enterprises must also compare the costs to moving to newer versions of Windows.
Here, we present one set of numbers for structured-task workers and another set for knowledge workers. The other research presents one set of numbers for a mixture of all four user types: 1 percent power users, 20 percent knowledge workers, 74 percent structured-task workers and 5 percent data entry workers. Tco profiles are based on a hardware life of three years. Enterprises that want to extend hardware life should use their own numbers, keeping in mind that hardware needing repair after warranty may need to be replaced before the end of its planned life, and failures and diversity will increase as PCs get older. Table 7 tco summary source: Gartner Research (June 2003) Table 8 starts putting the two together. For the migration costs, we use the numbers in the migration model in Table 1 with all nonhardware costs increased by 20 percent above our nominal best case.
Hardware costs are more predictable than software and labor, so in choosing a moderate choice between nominal best and worst, we raise the software and labor and leave the hardware as originally estimated. Table 8 payback period in Migrating to a linux Desktop, not Including Application development Costs source: Gartner Research (June 2003) Another choice the enterprise needs to make in analyzing the payback period is whether to examine indirect costs as well as direct costs. Direct costs are money spent on hardware, software and is labor (internal and contractors). Indirect costs are softer, less measurable costs of lost productivity. There are areas of lost productivity during the migration as users have their work disrupted, and after the migration to the extent that users have issues adjusting to the new environment or with compatibility. Table 8 shows that, before application migration costs are considered, structured-task workers moving from Windows 95 to unlocked, unmanaged Linux would have a payback period.7 years if only direct costs are considered and.5 years if direct and indirect costs are considered and. The same user on a modern, more stable os, such as Windows xp, will not see roi if indirect and direct costs are considered. For knowledge workers, the hurdle is much higher, and we are skeptical that roi can be attained in either case (and this is before application development migration costs are added).
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Table 4 presents the general office automation migration assumptions, table 5 presents the document type assumptions and Table 6 presents the cost summaries. Table 6 also provides the costs for a version upgrade, from Microsoft Office 97 or 2000 to Office 2000. We are only looking at Office Standard (no Access database) in the numbers here. If Access databases are present, that software must be replaced and the data migrated at additional cost. Table 4, migration Assumptions, source: Gartner Research (June 2003 table. Document Type Assumptions, source: Gartner Research (June 2003 table. Migration Cost Summary for Office automation Products. Source: Gartner Research (June 2003 table 7 presents a summary of some of the key tco profiles. The details are in "Linux Desktop tco: An overview "Linux Desktop tco: Hardware and Software details" and "Linux Desktop tco: Labor Details but it should be noted that the numbers presented here are different from the numbers presented in that research.
Source: Gartner Research (June 2003 table 3, migration mother Costs Including Application development. Source: Gartner Research (June 2003 the Office migration: to the linux migration numbers, we need to add the cost to migrate from Microsoft Office to StarOffice or OpenOffice. Org, at least for knowledge workers. The full office automation migration model is discussed in "Office automation Migration Cost Model "Office automation Compatibility cost/Benefit Model" and "The costs and Benefits of moving to sun's StarOffice.0.". We are assuming that the migration is being done with the migration to linux, so we have factored out the installation cost. Our original migration model focused on structured-task workers (although the structured-task workers we have been discussing in the linux migration and tco research have been non-Office users) and suggests that users with higher functional and compatibility requirements would not be suitable candidates for a migration. We will add the base numbers from that research for the structured-task workers here and have made some changes to the assumptions to reflect migration costs for a knowledge worker.
reflect a relatively low-end structured-task worker population of 2,500 using only three packaged applications each (out of a total of 30) and a total of 30 custom-developed applications (see table 1). Although we do not discuss them specifically in this research, data entry workers are the most structured and generally use the fewest applications, mostly to enter data and not to analyze. Assumptions for Windows-to-linux Migration Cost Model. Source: Gartner Research (June 2003 table 2 provides a summary of the migration costs, excluding application replacement selection and development, and Table 3 displays the summary with application replacement selection and development costs included. The detailed models are in "Linux Desktop Migration Cost Model. the reason we provide numbers with and without the cost of selecting new packaged applications and application development is because the extreme variability makes it very difficult for us to provide meaningful numbers in the model. Migration Costs Not Including Application development.
The payback period is defined as migration cost divided by tco savings and is presented in years. These models do not identify the suitability of, or business value provided by, any particular product or operating system (os and enterprises must decide on such suitability and identify such benefits in addition to performing the analysis discussed writing here. As with all our tco and cost model research, we remind readers that the most important parts of the models are the frameworks, not the numbers. We strongly advise enterprises to insert their own numbers to provide a more customized and realistic idea of what their costs will. We have built two migration cost profiles one looking at the cost to migrate structured-task workers, and the other to examine the cost to migrate knowledge workers. Structured-task workers are typically a link in a workflow or process and perform the same tasks repetitively. The process workers are driven in their daily jobs by a set process, rather than ad hoc projects. Knowledge workers gather, add value to and communicate information in a decision support process. These resources are driven by projects and ad hoc needs toward flexible tasks.
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Linux Desktop Migration: Finding the Break-even point. Document Type: Research Note, note number: DF-19-9068, gartner's migration cost and total cost of ownership models show that, depending on the types of users to migrate and the cost to move them to linux, break-even can be accomplished in as little as six months or as long. What you need to Know, users with few applications to migrate and those moving from older versions of Windows will be the best candidates for moving to linux internet on the desktop. These users may see payback on the investment in less than three years. Knowledge workers, who need access to a wide variety of applications, will be more difficult and expensive to move to linux, and payback will take considerably longer, if it ever occurs. Enterprises planning on migrating applications for the purpose of moving users to linux may not realize the payback that they expect on their investment. In other research, we examined the total cost of ownership (TCO) of Linux on the desktop (see "Linux Desktop tco: An overview "Linux Desktop tco: Hardware and Software details" and "Linux Desktop tco: Labor Details" ). We also built a migration cost model (see "Linux Desktop Migration Cost Model" ). Here, we combine that research to build a return on investment (ROI) model to evaluate the payback period.